Over a period of time, I came to a certain mindset that any idea that came to your mind initially has the right to be built, because before you attempt to bring it to life , you won’t know for sure whether you’ll achieve results in this area or not.
But before I start any project in any field, I observe how other people have implemented something similar, so perhaps they have already come up with a working model and so you do not need to spend a couple of years to come to the progress they for example already have.
Great analogy, and I think there’s a dichotomy here too. Some might take the advice too far and drop a project as soon as they lose interest. I do think there’s something to having the ability to stick with something and keep a more long-term mindset, that stays consistent through wavering interest and success.
I believe the best antidote to that problem is to stick with very small projects. There is always an option to do a project on top of an existing project (thus growing something over time), but each iteration should be complete on its own. And of course, small is relative. What is huge for me might be small for Elon Musk :)
Ha yea interesting. So basically, projects small enough where you can evaluate their usefulness without falling into the sunk cost trap. Where they’re big enough that you feel pressured to continue just bc of the time/commitment you’ve already put into them. Makes sense, although for a lot of people (those working full time with kids for example) even just one small side project is enough to fall into that trap. Lots of good points to consider that don’t fall into any other conventional advice I’ve come across!
Obviously, understanding the utility of the sheep is key here. How do you do the same with a small bet? What other heuristics should one be aware of for testing, validating, and potentially, abandoning a small bet?
It helps to have a hypothesis, but you will only know for sure after the fact. I don’t believe in validation; something is “validated” only when the expected payoff materializes. So, you get to understand utility by trial and error. Small safe-to-fail experiments. Projects that won’t jeopardize you (financially or psychologically) if they don’t work out.
I had a conversation with a friend of mine. We came to a realization that what’s needed is not creating a New Thing. Sometimes the most profitable business is targeting a new or underserved niche for an Old Thing, aka “boring business”.
I doesn’t need to be underserved either. In fact, if it’s underserved, it might be so for a reason. It’s often better to do things that are done a lot. Most things are not winner takes all.
I need to get myself some of those rugs!
If they really cost that much here in the US, it might be a good small bet to see if I can make and sell some.
IKEA has some smaller ones but very affordable
True! They’re a lot smaller than the one in Louie’s photo though.
Over a period of time, I came to a certain mindset that any idea that came to your mind initially has the right to be built, because before you attempt to bring it to life , you won’t know for sure whether you’ll achieve results in this area or not.
But before I start any project in any field, I observe how other people have implemented something similar, so perhaps they have already come up with a working model and so you do not need to spend a couple of years to come to the progress they for example already have.
Nice write-up. I consider it a modern take on the 80/20 principle.
20% of your cattle will yield 80% of the resources you need to sustain yourself on.
Imagine treating the 80% that gives you close to nothing like your beloved pet!
Great analogy, and I think there’s a dichotomy here too. Some might take the advice too far and drop a project as soon as they lose interest. I do think there’s something to having the ability to stick with something and keep a more long-term mindset, that stays consistent through wavering interest and success.
I believe the best antidote to that problem is to stick with very small projects. There is always an option to do a project on top of an existing project (thus growing something over time), but each iteration should be complete on its own. And of course, small is relative. What is huge for me might be small for Elon Musk :)
Ha yea interesting. So basically, projects small enough where you can evaluate their usefulness without falling into the sunk cost trap. Where they’re big enough that you feel pressured to continue just bc of the time/commitment you’ve already put into them. Makes sense, although for a lot of people (those working full time with kids for example) even just one small side project is enough to fall into that trap. Lots of good points to consider that don’t fall into any other conventional advice I’ve come across!
Love the new portal 🔥
Love this! Thanks for reminding again not to get emotionally attached to your projects and power of diversification.
Obviously, understanding the utility of the sheep is key here. How do you do the same with a small bet? What other heuristics should one be aware of for testing, validating, and potentially, abandoning a small bet?
It helps to have a hypothesis, but you will only know for sure after the fact. I don’t believe in validation; something is “validated” only when the expected payoff materializes. So, you get to understand utility by trial and error. Small safe-to-fail experiments. Projects that won’t jeopardize you (financially or psychologically) if they don’t work out.
I had a conversation with a friend of mine. We came to a realization that what’s needed is not creating a New Thing. Sometimes the most profitable business is targeting a new or underserved niche for an Old Thing, aka “boring business”.
I doesn’t need to be underserved either. In fact, if it’s underserved, it might be so for a reason. It’s often better to do things that are done a lot. Most things are not winner takes all.
Hmm I never thought of that, really good point, thank you.